After looking at the latest model runs I really don’t have much to change from the going forecast. You can look back to my previous forecast post for details I don’t get into here. I made a new map which is posted above, but really I could have just reposted the previous one, because again nothing really looks any different. The NAM has been pretty steady for the last several runs.
A surface low will deepen and migrate east along the KS/NE border through the day tomorrow. Scattered showers may start up across the warm sector during the morning across the entire threat area, but the NAM continues to show the crapvection moving off to the east with recovery in its wake. How morning storms evolve is definitely something I’ll be keeping an eye on when I get up tomorrow and one of the things that could possibly disrupt tomorrow’s potential.
The NAM continues to hold steady showing dewpoints climbing back into the low 60’s in Kansas tomorrow. That seems very reasonable given dewpoints around 60 near Dallas (and its plenty deep) this evening and upper 60’s farther south in Texas. Latest runs of the HRRR seem to be about in line with the NAM on moisture advection too so right now I have every reason to believe the NAM is handling it pretty well. The dryline should mix east through the day and should be approaching the 135 corridor around the time storms start to fire late in the afternoon. Storms will quickly move northeast off the dryline and strengthen as they move into better moisture and shear ramps up through the afternoon/evening. The tornado threat looks greatest in the 6-9 time frame as low level hodographs enlarge. If dewpoints climb into the low 60’s as forecast, I think there is a decent chance for a couple tornadoes over the area I boxed in red. That area seems to have the best chance for some discrete daytime storms in an area characterized by 1km SRH AOA 150 at 00Z and moderate instability. I think we’re probably looking at a lower end tornado threat, but if things come together properly we may be able to get a decent tornado or two out of it. I’ll wait until morning before getting too bold with predictions on the extent of the tornado threat though.
In fairness I didn’t look at north Texas very closely since I’m sticking close to home on this one. There may be some respectable potential down there too. I think Kansas is the most sure bet tomorrow though given all the considerations. My two biggest concerns for tomorrow’s tornado potential continue to be morning storms/clearing in their wake and veering low level winds. You can jump back to my earlier forecast post for details on that. Just as a reference below is the forecast surface/850/500 crossover from tonight’s NAM. If that verifies then I think we got a pretty good shot at a couple tornadoes. I’m still a little skeptical though lol
My plan as of now is to take off from work around 1 tomorrow to finishing throwing equipment in the car and to do my final forecasting/targeting. I shouldn’t have to go far from Wichita for my starting point. I may head northeast just a tad to make sure I have a good lead on storms in case they come off the dryline fast. I think it will take them a little bit to get going as they move off the boundary and I prefer to sacrifice seeing a lower end storm for good position when they do get going. Therefore I like to cheat downstream on quick storm motion days. I’ll get an exact target posted tomorrow, but I think the turnpike area between Eldorado and Topeka (and just NW of there) is kind of the stretch I want to play tomorrow. I always stick close to Wichita and make sure to keep that in range when they’re in the threat area though, so I may play close to home until I’m sure storms will get east of Wichita before they start ramping up.
I’ll update again in the morning when I get a chance at work. Crapvection should start going pretty early tomorrow so I imagine we should start to get a better feel for how the day will unfold by late morning. And btw I’d guess SPC will upgrade to enhanced on the Day 1.