Well I’m officially in a slump lol. That’s two chases in a row where I’ve picked the wrong target. Luckily I haven’t missed much as a result. Still it’s frustrating. I deviated from my south central Kansas target and bailed for the dryline bulge/warm front/triple point area around noon. I knew storms would get clustered in pretty badly in south central Kansas due to the veering low level winds and storm motions being parallel to the NE-SW oriented boundary. I also believed that storms would need to remain discrete until the evening in south central Kansas to have decent tornado potential, which wasn’t going to happen given the above and the early hour storms were firing at. Because of those concerns I bailed north to give that a try. I knew storms would likely be clustered in up there too, but it wasn’t as big of an issue IMO because of the stronger low level shear along the warm front/OFB. Storms would be able to tornado quicker after developing and they’d be able to tornado earlier in the day given the better low level shear already being in place. There were quite a few tornado warnings up there, but I bailed back south again when we got tired of waiting around. Watching storms train over Wichita was more than I could bear. So we jumped on a few storms by Wichita, took some small hail, narrowly dodged taking some bigger hail and then called it a day about 30 minutes ago.
Time to pick myself up by the boot straps and get my shit together for the next setup, which looks like Friday. Until a few minutes ago I’d paid zero attention to Friday’s setup since I was focused on today’s big flop. I only glanced at the NAM and GFS and there is a good deal of spread both on exact location of surface features and the overall strength of parameters that will be in place. The latest NAM run shows a nasty combination of thermodynamics and shear (also shows some morning storms tracking through), but the GFS shows a weaker solution. I need to look back at some previous runs and spend a little time on it before I post anything. I will probably look at it tonight and if I don’t get a forecast up tonight, then it will come tomorrow. I just pray to god I can get this one right and nail the target. Botching your target twice on lower end days with little consequence isn’t a big deal (minus the dent to my ego lol), but screwing up and missing a good tornado is and I do not want that to happen Friday. That being said I need to get after it on this one.