Forecast Update

The models are absolutely killing me. Still a fair amount of uncertainty with details surrounding Monday. Normally I wouldn’t care this far out, but I’m supposed to go talk to kids at a school so knowing at least the location and rough extent of any tornado threat this far out is kind of important this time. Generally speaking, the GFS has been pretty consistent in showing a solid tornado threat with a dryline and triple point over the western plains. The GFS has jumped around a bit moving the triple point north into west central Kansas and farther south in SW Kansas with a dryline extending through far western Oklahoma. The shift north was only for a run or two, so SW Kansas has generally been where it wants to setup the triple point. Then you have the ECMWF, which is slower bringing the trough into the plains and we may not get anything if that were to verify. The NAM doesn’t pick up on Monday afternoon’s setup until tomorrow morning, but because of the spread between the GFS and ECMWF I started looking at it 84 hours out just to see how it pairs up with the GFS. It was fairly similar with this mornings run, but now the 00Z shows some cause for concern. It’s actually still very similar with the upper air pattern, and probably looks a little better at 12Z Monday than the GFS, but there is now a big discrepancy with moisture return between earlier runs of the GFS and the 00Z NAM. The GFS has high quality moisture moving into Oklahoma by 12Z Monday. The NAM on the other hand has high quality moisture lagging to the south across central Texas at 12Z Monday. Hopefully it’s an anomaly because otherwise it could be problematic. I just hope to god the models come into better agreement tomorrow morning. I hate the uncertainty and I need to figure my plans out.

That’s all I got for tonight. I worked until 7:30 tonight and worked out after so I haven’t had much time to focus on forecasting. I also have to get up at the ass crack of dawn tomorrow to finish getting ready for a deal at work so I need to get to bed. Check back tomorrow though and I’ll get more information on Monday’s setup posted.

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