Forecast Update

This is going to be about as short as I make forecast posts. I literally have only taken 10 minutes to look at the models tonight, so don’t put much stock in this. I think I know how I’ll play tomorrow’s setup, but I want to firm it up in the morning after I’ve had a little time to look at data. My current thinking is that I’ll head out to the northeast Texas panhandle south of Liberal to start. Storms are forecast to develop near the triple point and build/track to the southeast kind of filling in an arcing line along the moisture wrapping in. What initially is a warm front in southwest Kansas will begin pushing back south quickly as a cold front late in the day. Storms could initiate along that, the triple point and the dryline. The extent of convection along the dryline is very much uncertain, but hopefully will be more clear by morning. My guess is we’ll get dryline storms, despite the models not wanting to show it happening right now. There are a few concerns with tomorrow. Low level shear is not that good for tornadoes except for maybe with a triple point storm until late in the day around 00Z as the LLJ ramps up. With that being the case and a cold front crashing south effectively propagating they triple point southeast through the afternoon, convective evolution is a concern over the northwestern portion of the target area SPC outlined. My plan is to be close enough to the triple point by early afternoon to move in on it if I want, but I’ll likely cheat east out ahead of it a ways to see how things are playing out on satellite. I think the safest play is to position yourself for any tail end storm coming through the Oklahoma panhandle/northern Texas panhandle late in the afternoon. At the same time by cheating east I’ll keep the dryline north of I40 in play. If it looks like there will be a discrete dryline storm, then I’m dropping south. I think that would be the best play tomorrow for tornadoes, but at this point it’s just a bit unclear how extensive storms will be along the dryline. As a fall back plan I think the tail end of any convection working through the NE Texas panhandle and adjacent portions of Oklahoma area later in the afternoon will also have a tornado chance. Low level hodographs get pretty good between 00-03Z. The key tomorrow is being on the storm that can realize that potential by being a discrete storm later in the day. Anyway, that’s my preliminary target for now, but it will likely change once CAM guidance and satellite shed a little light on convective evolution tomorrow afternoon. I’m a little concerned about just in time moisture, but it should be less of an issue as you move east off the triple point and get later into the day and that’s the real area/timeframe of interest anyway. I’ll update again in the morning once I get more time. I do think we’ll see some tornadoes tomorrow. Maybe even a couple decent quality ones. Basically I think it’s a lower end tornado threat, but we may get a sleeper strong tornado out of the deal if things play out right. I need to watch game of thrones and get some sleep so that’s it for tonight.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *