Extended Forecast

I glanced over the last couple runs of the GFS and it looks like any meaningful action is going to be in Canada for a while. I can’t make Canada this week, so I only glanced at it, but Thursday doesn’t look too bad up there. The ridge doesn’t flatten out hardly at all with Thursday’s system, so it’s just a jet streak working into the crest of the ridge without much in the way of pressure falls, so convection will probably be limited, but the parameters look supportive of tornadic supercells.

I’m not going to get into much detail now because I’ve just started watching the models and they’re a little shaky in the long range, but ridge may start to break down over the northern plains early next work week as another trough moves through southern Canada/the northern plains. We’ll have to look at later runs, but if that happens then the jet stream and additional troughs further upstream should get into the northern plains next week (especially later into the week) and we may start to get some tornadoes to chase again. Just likely going to be heading north. That doesn’t bother me. I’ve actually made a lot more long distance chases up north than I have south. I’ve chased North Dakota and Minnesota quite a few times. It’s been a few years since I made it that far north, but I won’t hesitate to do it if there is a good setup. I really want to get at least one more good stretch of chasing in this year, so I think the odds are good I’ll be heading up there before long. We just need mother nature to cooperate.

I’ll take a closer look at the models tomorrow and update again.

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