Well I pretty much botched today’s chase. Once I got on the road and did some forecasting my plan was to take 160 down into far southeast Colorado and setup by Springfield until I saw how CU fields looked along with a few other things before moving in close to where storms were going to fire. I knew I was cutting it a little close leaving at 8:15 this morning too, since storms were going to fire as early as 1pm. Still I think I had it timed right until I made one crucial mistake. I stopped in Dodge City and debated taking the northern route up through Lamar rather than sticking to my plan, committing south and going down 160 on a more direct course to my target. I have a bad habit of hedging my bets rather than fully committing to my target and a lot of times it costs you since your reaction time to getting on a storm is slower when you play the middle like that. I was a little too late getting down to 160 as a result and missed the tornado by Trinidad, Colorado. I don’t feel too bad, but it always sucks missing a tornado. I have a work meeting at lunch tomorrow I need to be at, so I’m playing the Kansas/Oklahoma target. The NAM spikes composite indices over north central Oklahoma. It seems to want to lay down an OFB right there from overnight/morning precip which serves as a focus for convection later in the day. Take that with a grain of salt btw. I just glanced at model data. Problem with this scenario as I see it, the NAM does not seem to have a good handle on how precip is evolving up to this point. Precip seems to be farther south than the NAM and 4km have it. So it’s still a little tricky trying to figure out any exact targets or the extent of any tornado threat until we can get some idea of how precip will impact the surface pattern. That probably won’t be real clear until morning. I’ll try to get a post up in the morning from work if I can. I do plan on chasing tomorrow. High quality moisture should reside over at least parts of the plains tomorrow and with seasonably good wind fields, the odds seem favorable for a few tornado reports. Soooo, I”ll be out there.

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