5/13/17 Forecast Update

051317 Forecast Map

I really don’t have a whole lot to add to my previous posts. My feelings regarding the setup for Tuesday has stayed right on track with each model run. The NAM picked up on this setup with the 12Z run and shows weaker parameters with the dryline a little farther west. Usually that’s the opposite of what you can expect between the GFS and NAM. The NAM is usually the model that juices things a bit too much and shows stronger parameters relative to the NAM, but that’s not the case this morning. The GFS has been pretty damn consistent though run to run so for now I’m not going to worry about the NAM much. I’m also not going to spend much time forecasting or posting today. I have some things to get done today and I plan on going out tonight so I really don’t have much time for screwing off on the computer. Sunday is my day of rest and forecasting though so I will roll up my sleeves tomorrow morning and take a closer look at things.

Thursday’s setup is starting to become a bit more clear. It is strikingly similar to Tuesday in both location, spatial extent and parameters. It’s hard to tell I have two separate threat areas on the map for Tuesday and Thursday because they basically are on top of each other.

As far as Tuesday goes, the NAM keeps it dry with no precip coming off the dryline. I’m going to call bullshit there though (which is one more reason why I’m disregarding the 12Z NAM run). The GFS continues to initiate storms along the dryline from SW Oklahoma up into central Kansas. The strongest and most consistent signal for precip has been along the KS/OK border, which is where I intend to target at this point. I think there are two distinct targets people are gravitating towards for Tuesday and that is the KS/OK border area and the SW quadrant of Oklahoma. Either one is good. There has been a bit of a veer, back, veer trend with hodographs along the KS/OK border area that doesn’t seem as pronounced over SW Oklahoma, but that wouldn’t be enough to pull me away from Kansas since I want to help KWCH out with coverage. I’ll take a closer look at forecast soundings tomorrow and start to really pick apart those details.

Anyway, I gotta get some shit done so that’s it for today. I still think Tuesday looks like a moderate risk, especially over the two areas I pointed out as potential chase targets for Tuesday. SPC may stick to an enhanced risk for this one though strictly because it looks like storms will be very sparse with possibly only a few discrete supercells. You have to remember they are kind of forecasting for a different purpose and storm coverage, density of reports is a guide for them. I think more along the lines of how strong any given storm may be and I do think there that although this isn’t a real good tornado setup by any means, I do believe that there is strong tornado potential. Check back tomorrow for an update. My plan is to forecast and get a post up tomorrow morning whenever I get up.

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