I just checked the 00Z NAM and no major surprises. Basically everything looks the same. One thing I keep forgetting to address is the width of the warm sector. The NAM keeps showing a relatively narrow instability axis due to cloud cover keeping surface temps down out over the warm sector, with clearing only immediately ahead of the dryline. You can look at 850mb RH and see the saturated areas correspond with the lower surface temps across the warm sector. The GFS has been showing the same thing, but not quite to the extent of NAM. This could be a bit of an issue, especially if storms fire earlier in the afternoon. Storm motions should have a pretty strong northerly component to them. Even right mover projected storm motions are northeasterly, so although it doesn’t help get them off the dryline and into better quality air quickly, NE storm motions do increase residence time in the stronger instability axis when it is narrow like it may be on Tuesday. I feel like that was a run on sentence lol. Anyway, it’s a consideration but it certainly wouldn’t affect my chase plans. It just may be a mitigating factor to how long storms may be able to keep going.
The NAM stuck almost exactly to the same precip output as previous runs with a discrete storm firing in the NE Texas panhandle. The high resolution NAM stuck to its guns too with a number of storms along the dryline, but for some reason the storms that fire in the NE Texas panhandle peter out. The high resolution NAM has been showing that over the last couple runs, but I don’t put much stock in little details like that.
My plan is still the same. I am going to leave Wichita around noon and head for the far eastern Oklahoma panhandle. I’ll probably setup shop there for a while until I see how cumulus fields are evolving and then possibly drop a little farther south. Just depends on where it looks like storms are going to come off the dryline. I always cheat downstream though so I’ll err north with my initial targeting. The 00Z NAM has conditions already quite favorable for tornadic supercells over the NE Texas panhandle by 00Z. That area spreads north into southern Kansas through 03Z. The sig tornado is spiking where the stronger 850’s/low level shear is and that’s where I intend to be. The parameters being forecast are supportive of strong tornadoes with any storm tracking through that area so it may end up being a good day. If we only get one discrete storm tracking through that area it is going to be a god damn mess of a chasers out there. I imagine early some people will target farther south along the OK/TX panhandle, but there will be a lot already up there where I plan on targeting. Then if short term CAM guidance shows a lone supercell coming out of the NE Texas panhandle, it’s going to suck in all those people targeting farther south. It has the potential to be a shit show of monumental proportions if things play out that way. I think we will probably get storms coming off all along the dryline though so hopefully that will thin the herd a bit.
That’s it for tonight. I’ll update tomorrow morning if I get a chance. Otherwise I’ll get something posted tomorrow night so check back if you’re interested.