051617 forecast mapJust a quick update before I get ready to head out. Still no major changes to the going forecast aside from adjusting the threat area for strong tornadoes a little farther south. I did this mainly because I think the chances for discrete storms are a little better as you go farther south. The dryline may have more of a NE to SW orientation to it over western Kansas, which will put storm motions more parallel to the initiating boundary. Farther south storm motions will be more perpendicular to the boundary and more favorable for scattered/discrete supercells. Still the low level jet axis will move into southern/central Kansas, so a strong tornado threat still exists there. I’m just not as confident that convective mode/evolution will be favorable for realizing that tornado potential farther north. My target is still the same. Heading towards Laverne, Oklahoma initially, but I may drop a little farther south from there depending upon the latest trends as I approach my target area early this afternoon. The HRRR is showing several discrete supercells coming off the dryline across the Texas panhandle this afternoon with fairly significant UH tracks, lending more confidence that we may see a tornado outbreak this afternoon. Baseball hail will be possible with any discrete supercell along with several tornadoes. The strong tornado potential will begin to ramp up around 6-7pm as the LLJ strengthens and hodographs enlarge. Any discrete supercell over the area boxed in red should pose a strong tornado threat between 6-9pm.

I am a little torn on my target. I know I’m going to want to drop farther south, but I want to stick close to Kansas to help KWCH with coverage. Given how slow this year has been, I’m leaning towards hunting elephants today and going after the better tornado potential, even if that pulls me away from the KWCH viewing area. We will have plenty of chasers in the field today for KWCH so it’s not a big deal if I’m not there to help out. I don’t know though. It’s a tough call. I hate these days where there is good tornado potential in the KWCH viewing area, but it’s even better just outside of it because I can’t ever decide which way to go. I’ll make that call as CAM guidance and satellite start to paint a clearer picture early this afternoon.

I’ll update from the road through the afternoon. Wheels up for us around 11am. I just got a new windshield put in and not I got to drop Duck off at the baby sitter. After that I’m picking up Ryan who is driving for me today on the west side and hitting the road. I’ll probably update again here in a couple hours so check back if you’re interested.

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