Tornado/Severe WX Outbreak Expected Thursday

051817 UH TracksA severe weather/tornado outbreak is expected across parts of south central Kansas and western Oklahoma tomorrow. Conditions could be particularly volatile along a warm front that will be lifting north through southern Kansas tomorrow afternoon. Extreme instability and strong low level shear will make the corridor along the warm front particularly favorable for violent storms. Storms should develop near a triple point out towards Dodge City during the afternoon tomorrow, with additional storms developing along a dryline running south from this triple point along the Oklahoma/Texas panhandle border that will track to the northeast through south central Kansas during the late afternoon/evening. The above map shows 0-3km updraft helicity, which provides some indication of how strong rotation will be within the storms that develop. Those are impressive UH swaths and a big red flag for tornado and large hail potential. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a moderate risk for tomorrow over this area. The excellent thermodynamics associated with strong shear profiles will make this a very volatile setup. I’ll get a forecast up later tonight with more information. South central Kansas will almost certainly be in for a serious weather event tomorrow though, so pay close attention and be prepared. Right now it looks like Wichita will be just east of the more serious tornado threat area, but it’s going to be close and if dryline storms coming up from the south can remain discrete, it very well could post a serious tornado threat for Wichita right after dark. Check back tonight for a full forecast post.

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