5/13/20 Forecast Post

I didn’t forecast much. There were some major differences between the NAM and GFS with this mornings runs, with the NAM retarding moisture return into the central plains ahead of the dryline relative to the GFS. The GFS brought moisture all the way up into north central Kansas, where the NAM kept the north edge of the moist tongue in Oklahoma. The NAM took a dump with the 18Z run so I ignored that. Just got done looking at the 00Z run and the NAM is trending the right way with the surface pattern. It’s putting a dryline bulge into NW Oklahoma and SW Kansas. The GFS still has moisture much farther north than the NAM, but they’re moving towards each other. I dug into the cause of the differences at the surface between the two models a little bit, but I really don’t want to ramble about those details which are largely irrelevant at this point. I think the NAM is closer to right, but I also think it will continue to trend north and bring the triple point up farther into Kansas. Right now my guess is a starting target of Minneola, KS to Woodward, Oklahoma area. That could change a lot, but that’s my guess as of now. Deep layer shear is not going to be very strong, but it should be strong enough in the northern portions of the warm sector (NW Oklahoma and Kansas) for supercells with around 40kts sfc-6km. The bottom half of hodographs look good with solid low level shear, but there’s not much length to the top half with weaker mid level winds and weak upper level winds. Given the strong instability we’ll get supercells, but there may not be a whole lot of updraft/downdraft separation.

The NAM is rather stingy with precipitation coming off the dryline, but I don’t trust that at all. It’s seems like the NAM has under forecast precipitation almost every time this year and it has the dryline uncapped by the triple point during the afternoon with the 00Z run. I think morning precipitation the NAM has and the dry pocket is geeking with it, so I’m not giving it any thought right now. Plus the 00Z run of the NAM has trended way more towards greater instability/weaker cap relative to the 12Z run. The NAM is catching up, it just needs another run or two I think, but I do think we’ll get storms off the dryline. I’ll get into more detail tomorrow, but basically I think we’ll get a few storms off the dryline with the best tornado potential near the triple point and dryline bulge. That looks to be far NW Oklahoma and SW Kansas and potentially into south central Kansas. The tornado potential looks to be somewhat lower end. Maybe it could nose up into more like a 10% tornado probability type setup if things go right. I did try to make a map tonight btw. No dice though. I’m on may MacBook and I tried opening powerpoint to make a map and apparently my subscription expired. Didn’t know I had one. I thought I had bought microsoft office. Whatever. Renewing that was more work than I was looking for and I did not one to get my old chase laptop to use microsoft paint to make a map. It’s all the way across the room and again too much work lol. I would have circled that area from Woodward to Minneola, KS and points northeast of there downstream as the greatest tornado threat if I did make a map though, so just envision that. I’m real curious to see how SPC handles their map tomorrow. That will say a lot about where they think the triple point will set up. May see a hatched area over that portion of the risk area.

Beyond Wednesday setup, there looks to probably be some lower end localized events peppered through the week, with potentially a more significant trough coming in the following week. Still too far out for details, but I’m more excited about the week after this one than I am about this week’s potential. So good news if you’re chaser. Things seem to be getting active in the plains. I need to get new brake pads this week some time before I really start hitting the road hard in the next two weeks. I’ll get out two or three times this week I bet, but the following two weeks is when I really will be hitting it hard. I have 9 days straight off work at the end of the month so unless we get screwed with a ridge, I’ll be covering a lot of miles in the plains. May hit Colorado and Wyoming during that stretch. I hope I get too. It’ been a while since I’ve chased that far north and I’d like to get back up there.

That’s all for tonight. I’ll check the models tomorrow and try to get a map posted so check back then if you’re interested

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I’m Awake

I’m a little late this year, but figured it was time to dust off ye olde blog and start posting again. Already got in three chases this year. Opened strong with four tornadoes on April 22nd in Madill, Oklahoma. Unfortunately the first tornado that hit Madill killed two people. I streamed all four tornadoes on severe studios so it was a solid day for me. I had some serious equipment problems that I won’t bore you with. I replaced virtually all my equipment this season so it’s to be expected. I chased again on 4/28 in SE Kansas. I was on a tornado warned storm that day so I did a phoner for KWCH, mainly to show we had a presence in the field and were on the right storm because it wasn’t that serious. Then finally I chased 5/04 in NE Oklahoma. Nothing good that day. Just a severe storm with weak structure dropping big hail, which is pretty much my least favorite storm. Nothing fun about shit structure with no tornado yet having to sweat getting pounded. Now things seem to be picking up a bit in the coming weeks. It looks like Wednesday of next week will be a chase day in the central plains with possibly a couple more lower end or more localized events coming up later next week. Beyond that it looks like a stronger trough will move on shore and start to effect the plains the following week. Too far out for details at this point, but it’s what you’d expect this time of year. We are coming into the heart of tornado season over the next few weeks. I have May 23-31 off to chase full time. I may tweak that depending upon the upper air pattern, but either way I will be out a lot. I’m armed with 4 weeks of vacation this year so I’ll be chasing a lot more than past years. In other news I’ve agreed to chase with a station out of Kansas City so if we get any action up there then hopefully I can contribute to the coverage. I’ve gotten my equipment issues ironed out over the last week so I feel ready. I just need opportunity now and it looks to come Wednesday. I’ll dig into the forecast tomorrow and try and get a post up on it so check back if you’re interested. I’m also looking at moving my blog and website in the next couple weeks. Both are pieces of shit I setup a long time ago and have avoided messing with. I’m going to switch hosts and start both from scratch soon. I’ll transfer my domain name so the addresses should stay the same. I would have done it already, but during the pandemic I’ve been focused on learning new editing software. My video editing game has gone up dramatically, but I haven’t put it to use yet. That should change soon. I’m also streaming with severe studios this year so there is once again public access to watch my live stream when I’m in the field. The last few years I was streaming, but it was private for TV station use only. I’ve also started streaming with an interior camera for a picture in picture view while we wait for storms to get going. I think it makes it a lot more entertaining for the viewers. I put on volume occasionally too, but I have to shut that down when I’m in Kansas once I get on a storm. Once you get on a good storm my stream needs to be appropriate for TV which means no picture in picture or volume. Anyway, I’ll get links posted for that when I’m heading out next time. Check back tomorrow for a forecast update.

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Tornado Forecast

Just threw a quick map together so I could convey the area of interest for Friday. The plains look like they might be picking up a bit the second half of June. Nothing major showing up consistently in the models, but there’s so lower end setups this weekend and then we may get some stronger mid/upper level winds the following week. For now I’m focused on Friday’s setup. It looks like a lower end setup, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a couple tornadoes. LCL height may be high initially, but it looks like there may be a window around dark with the low level shear picks up and LCL heights lower enough for a discrete storm or two to produce. The area I outlined in red is where I think the best chance of that happening is. Still some differences among the models. Latest NAMnest is farther east than the NAM. It has any storms into the better moisture/higher CAPE tongue earlier after coming off the boundary. The NAM shows some capping issues. Not sure what to think there since I’m just starting to pay close attention. Strong CAPE over the open warm sector, but deep layer shear is weak. It’s weak to the point that it’s a bit of a concern. The short of it is we may get a couple supercells in the SW Kansas area and with the low developing farther south and backing surface winds across the area, we may be able to get a couple tornadoes. I’m definitely leaning towards going. I wouldn’t mind a Friday afternoon chase and I’m itching to get back out again. I’ll take a closer look tomorrow and get into it more then.

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Extended Forecast and Update on Everything Else

Long time no post. I needed a break after the last couple weeks. I haven’t totaled up my miles or hours spent in the car yet, but it was rough. My guess is I covered right around 6,000 miles and probably pushing 75 hours plus in the car during that stretch. Really not a whole lot to show for it either, which is frustrating. I made some mistakes I regret and other decisions that cost me tornadoes I still think were the right ones. I’ll get into that a bit below. I’ll tack that onto the back end so the people who don’t want to hear me ramble don’t have to. Before that I’ll get into the extended forecast briefly.

The mid season high pressure has set in. It’s almost kind of nice. I was ready for a break and I had a ton of work to get caught up on so it’s welcome in that regard. It’s also welcome because for the first time in a few years it feels like a return to a normal tornado season in the plains. 2016 had an active stretch, but if I remember right that was pretty much it. Just one 7 day or so stretch where we got some good setups. 2017-2018 just flat out sucked in the central/southern plains. This season feels like the good old days minus the quiet March and April in the plains. May has done it’s part and then settling into the mid season ridge around June 1st is what I always used to expect in the 2003-2010 or so window where tornado season used to seem more stable in the plains. The mid season ridge always seemed to last right around 2 weeks before it would break down and you’d get a setup or two in Kansas and several in the northern plains. Still way too far out to get into it, but the models have been hinting at a similar pattern for this year. There’s a closed low that’s going to come meandering through the southern plains late this work week, but I’m not sure it’s going to amount to much. Maybe a low end chance for tornadoes Sunday too, but again it’s not looking real promising. It doesn’t look good now, but I may be more interested in the NE Colorado area for Sunday than I am in the Oklahoma/Kansas corridor. It doesn’t look that good right now though so I’m not even sure it will be worth chasing. I’ll post on it more in later forecasts. Then as I mentioned above there are hints that the ridge may start to break down around the middle of June which would open up the door for some decent tornado setups in the central and northern plains. I just started looking at the models after taking a forecast break for a few days so give me another day or two to get a feel for it and then I’ll try to elaborate a bit more on the extended forecast.

Now for the rambling lol. I’m sitting at 5 tornadoes on the season. Really I think I should be right around 13-15 by now if I did a good job. This latest series of chases started with the McCook and Dodge City tornadic storms two weeks ago this past Friday. I liked the Dodge City target better and mentioned that routinely in my blog for days leading up to the event. SPC going 2% on the tornado probs down there and the CAM guidance indicating any storms that went would struggle with the cap and fizzle out rattled my confidence in a sustained storm though and I opted for the more sure thing with McCook Nebraska. It worked out I guess since I got tornadoes up there, but I would have much rather been in the KWCH coverage area on the Dodge City storm. Lesson learned, try not to let SPC influence your targeting judgement too much. I’ve been burned on that a lot and I always tell myself to completely disregard SPC’s thinking, but when it comes to cap strength or whether or not storms will fire I lean on them more than usual. Consequences weren’t that bad, although my tornado pics in Nebraska didn’t look nearly as intimidating as the pictures of the tornadoes from behind the storm. Most chaser pics were from behind and it made the tornado look white with brown dust sucking into them. They looked pretty gnarly from that view. I was in front of it and it didn’t make them look nearly as good. That storm was hauling ass, doing around 45mph at times. That’s why most chasers were behind it. I kept good position in front which would have paid off if the tornadoes stayed on the ground for very long, but they didn’t. I like positioning in front so when there is a long track tornado I can cut it off at an intersection. That’s usually my go too play on fast storm motion days. Stay ahead and hold position as long as you can waiting for a solid tornado. In this case staying behind actually worked out a little better.

Next serious tornado day was that Monday down in Oklahoma. The big high risk bust lol. Non-traditional setups seem to never work out for tornado potential in the plains to the extent you think they will on tornado potential. Textbook dryline and triple point setups always seem way more reliable. That free warm sector storms (although there won’t many that materialized that day) needs to stay in the southeastern US where it belongs lol. I think we got on the right storm that day. We were on the tornadic supercell in SW Oklahoma that produced the Mangum tornado. Only problem was we were repositioning when it produced. It was super hazy that day down there with dewpoints pushing into the mid 70’s. We watched the base just south of Mangum by about 10 miles and you had to get in tight to even be able to see it. Rotation was weak but intensifying as it crossed the E-W road we were on south of Mangum. The choice at that point was to take this paved road straight north into Mangum which would put you right under the base in the near term, but there weren’t good NE road options out of there without core punching which was a nonstarter on a high CAPE (huge hail) high risk day. The other option was to give up position for 20 minutes to shoot east to Altus and cut northwest out of there to pick up on the storm as it came out of Mangum. Doing that you were ahead of it and would have position for at least an hour or so after Mangum and you’d be in front of the chaser horde which was pretty brutal that day. Given that it was a high risk day and shear was only getting stronger through the afternoon and it was pretty early in the day at that point, we opted for sacrificing immediate position to have it for the longer term. Unfortunately for us it produced by Mangum and then got packed in with other bullshit storms that fired south of it right after that killing the tornado potential. I still don’t know that I regret that decision. It still seems like the smart play. I do think I need to be a little more aggressive though and stop focusing on position for the future and shift my focus to holding position in the present. That horde and the road networks probably would have screwed you coming out of Mangum though so that one could have gone either way. I chalk missing that tornado up to dumb luck.

The other day where I think mistakes were made was the day I chased southeast Kansas/night of the two tornadoes north of Joplin. I had that one. We went to intercept that storm as it tracked through northeast Oklahoma and had it beat easily to Baxter Springs. North of Baxter Springs about 10 miles I talked to the guy I was with and decided to go north instead strictly because the roads were already on the verge of being closed for flooding down there and there was a big line of storms coming in behind the Baxter Springs storm that we’d have to punch back through and more importantly were going to dump a bunch more rain across southeast Kansas, potentially blocking our return trip home. I already got trapped by flooded roads once this season and it sucks balls. I had to be at work the next morning and I think that probably cost me. If I could just grab a hotel some place I wouldn’t have been sweating getting caught southeast of the storms/flooding. We knew that storm had the best tornado potential, but if we took the northern storm in eastern Kansas we had an easy escape home on 54. We opted for that storm. It went tornado warned but never produced. I only get two weeks of vacation at work so I have to use as little as possible to make sure I stretch it out through storm season and don’t miss any big outbreaks. I also took two ski trips this year and am going back to Vail on vacation next month. That has kept me running tight on vacation days through this active stretch. The really good news is starting here in a month or so I get bumped to 4 weeks of vacation. We got bought out by a larger corporation and they have a much better vacation package, so this will be the last year Mikey has to meter his chasing. It’s open season after this month so I’ll get out a lot more and be able to chase way more aggressively with my targeting. I haven’t got to do that since 2012 or so and I think the results have suffered quite a bit because of it. Anyways, it was a bitch move on my part and I got what I deserved lol. Fuck sleep, you got to go where the best tornado threat is. I had been chasing pretty hard for 5 days or so by that point though and the lack of sleep and the extremely long drives really starts to wear on you. Driving though pouring rate at night also sucks something fierce. Basically I allowed those things and the fact that I needed to be back at work the next morning steer my decision making and that was a mistake.

The final day and the only one that really hurts was Tuesday of last week. I knew better. The Topeka to Kansas City to Emporia target was a layup. I knew that and I knew a tail end would track through there that would have unimpeded inflow and produce. I also knew it was going to be sloppy and I’ve had my fill of sloppy setups this season. HP supercells suck and I don’t enjoy punching in on them if I have options. That option was north central Kansas. SPC was giving the north central Kansas target no love with the tornado probs. Again I know better than to allow them to influence my judgement. I don’t say that because I think I know better, although chaser targeting is a different animal from what spc is doing with probs. I don’t like giving them much credit in my targeting because I find it’s easier to swallow a bust when I’m responsible for the decision making than I do when I go against my instinct and allow other things like SPC to steer my targeting. That clearing and high quality moisture working in behind morning convection in north central Kansas was a big red flag for tornado potential. I knew around 1pm I needed to head to Salina. The idea that wichita also had a decent tornado threat was making me want to stay south and SPC’s lack of higher tornado probs up north was kind of the icing on that cake. Had I gone to Salina, by the time the warm front started lighting up and wrapping into the triple point on satellite by early afternoon that was an easy call. The warm front looked great and although there was shit directional shear in the 850-500 layer, strongly backing surface winds right along the warm front should have given a sickle shape to hodographs and that warm front was oriented northeast to southwest right by the triple point which was going to parallel storm motions (rides the boundary or long residence time at worst). I regret missing that storm. I don’t really regret not seeing the Lawrence rain wrapped tornado all that much. The north central Kansas storm was a beast though and I think it would have favored my style of downstream chasing since those tornadoes would have been down long enough for me to get in close in front of them. I also could have gotten some more tornadoes live on air this year for KWCH, which is the holy grail of tornado coverage. They eat that up when you get a live stream of a tornado and it’s harder than you might think to do. That storm would have been pretty easy though since the tornadoes were highly visible and lasted a while.

That is the end of my sulking. I need to man up and get my shit together for the back half of season. I’ll be keeping any eye on the models and I’ll try to update again tomorrow on the extended forecast so check back then if you’re interested.

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Today

Sorry for not posting more in the way of forecasts recently. I am dead tired from chasing virtually nonstop for the last 10 days or so. It’s been tough chasing and today looks to be no different with fast storm motions and a sloppy setup once again. This type of stuff makes a traditional dry line with discrete storms seem like a layup. I did a horrible job throwing the above map together. It was getting too cluttered so I couldn’t include all the info I wanted to. Storms should develop over the next couple hours in the two areas I outlined in yellow, which pertains mostly to the Wichita people. The storms forming south of us over the open warm sector will track north before they get severe. The dryline storms, which should form to our west near the other area I outlined in yellow is what Wichita needs to worry about this afternoon. Large hail and a lower end tornado threat is what I think we’re looking at. I just don’t think there is enough turning in the 850-500 layer for a solid tornado threat, despite CAPE being through the roof. Farther east over the warm sector and up towards the Topeka to Kansas City area there is better turning in that layer and the tornado threat should be higher as a result. Cloud cover has kept instability down, but clearing is working it’s way north and if that area can get a little sun before storms fire over the warm sector and start tracking through there again the tornado threat could be pretty solid. The warm front is draped roughly along I70 and the tornado threat should be maximized along and either side of that, especially in that Topeka to KC corridor. Any storm tracking through that area with undisturbed inflow to it’s south (no storms off it’s south side geeking with it) should pose the greatest tornado threat. SPC is giving no low to the Salina area, but it’s been clearing from McPherson to Concordia with the surface low rotating just west of there. I think this area could be a sleeper for a good tornado storm. You could also see an E-W outflow boundary from earlier storms that quickly mixed north and should be along I70 about now. That’s one more thing that may enhance a storm up there. Storms should develop east of the low along the dryline and track through that area, despite CAM guidance not really wanting to show that. I’m torn between heading north for what I think is a better tornado threat and staying down here to cover Wichita in case we get raked by a dryline storm. Can’t decide. Chasing for KWCH has cost me a lot of tornadoes because I don’t like risking missing out on covering Wichita on days when it’s under the gun. If it weren’t for that, I’d be heading towards Emporia or Topeka right now. I’m looking at data and will make the call soon. Good luck if you’re out. My guess is you’ll see several tornadoes up there along and north of I70 and staying just SE of that area and picking off dominant storms with undisturbed inflow as they track through the Topeka/KC/Emporia triangle is probably your best bet for a tornado today. I will probably cover Wichita and then possibly try to ride that storm northeast along the turnpike for as long as I can. Still up in the air on that though.

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Update

In Holly. Verizon internet sucks here so I can’t get data very quickly. The storm by Campo, CO is tracking right through the area of interest right now, but storm motions are fast with it tracking at 50mph currently. I don’t want to commit yet because of how fast it’s moving and the prospects for additional storms to develop around it which could change my angle of approach. Roads are really sketchy NE of that storm too which would make keeping up with it impossible so hanging downstream seems like the safe play for the moment.

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Update

Heading west out of Garden City driving through the lead edge of the moist tongue pumping into the threat area for today. It’s soupy out here as you can tell by the haze. I’m headed to Holly, CO and will stop to forecast briefly there. I could head as far west as Lamar to start. It looks to fill in quick, but I am hoping for discrete cells initially and a lead or tail end storm as the move northeast. I’ll update when I get to Holly with forecast info

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Today 052619

Still at the hotel in Garden City. You can’t throw a rock without hitting a chaser up here. I slept in late so I’m just now starting to forecast. I need to shower and get out of here so I’ll finish up forecasting in the car. My preliminary thoughts are to head straight west out of here just into Colorado, but storms look to fill in somewhat quickly with earlier initiation up north and I’m sick of sloppy setups so I’m looking south along the dryline too. I’ll figure it out within an hour and update when I do.

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Today 052519

Above is a quick little map I made on a sat pic from COD. The HRRR has been consistent in breaking out storms about where you can see the first hints of cumulus towers showing up on the map above where I circled in green. Additionally storms that fired earlier are trying to build northeast through the central Texas panhandle. You have that stretch of convection free unstable air north of the cloud cover in Texas that I circled in yellow. My question is whether the storms trying to build towards the northeast will fill in quick enough to clutter in/botch the environment for any storms developing over the western Oklahoma panhandle over the next couple hours. I’m sitting in Liberal right now kind of hedging my bests until I see how storms are going to come off. Over the northern half of the enhanced risk, low level winds are still veered and ain’t nothing happening with tornadoes until that changes anyhow so I am in no hurry. Surface winds have started to back over the last 30 minutes and modesl show that by 3-4pm low level winds will be backed and the LLJ will start ramping up into the evening. This is when the tornado threat should go up, so I’m trying to plan for that window and figure out where a more dominant storm will be tracking through with some open air to it’s southeast. This will either be a SW Kansas storm if storms farther south don’t fill in too quick or it could be a lead storm coming out of the northeast Texas panhandle. I’m in between, erring north slightly by sitting in Liberal. I got good road networks out of here so I’m going to sit tight until I think I have a handle on how things will unfold.

The other target I liked for this afternoon was playing a tail end more dominant storm through the SE quadrant of the Texas panhandle. That may end up being the storm headed towards Plainview or you may get another storm going up ahead of or just south of that storm. I’m playing north today though strictly to help with coverage and knock tonights/tomorrows drive down by 4-5 hours.

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052519 Update

On the road now for the next couple days to chase. Not sure on my target today. I think the area just south of I40 in the Texas panhandle will probably have the best tornadoes today. I’m real tempted to head down there. I’m a little worried if I do that we may see a few tornadoes in SW Kansas later in the day once 850’s back and strengthen and I’ll miss those in the kwch viewing area. Tough decision. Tomorrow is western Kansas looks like it could be a big tornado day so staying up north today also keeps me closer to tomorrow’s target. I’ll make the call on north or south here in an hour or two. Definitely think the best tornado threat is the southern half of SPC’s enhanced risk but I’m racking 8 hours round trip travel time on and bailing on kwch coverage if I go for it so again a tough decision needs to be made soon.

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