With fall approaching, it is time to start watching the models again for tornado potential in the plains. Fall season is traditionally pretty hit and miss, but if we do get a good tornado setup in the plains it usually happens in October-November. Right on schedule, the GFS has been consistently hinting at the polar front jet returning to the plains around mid October with a fairly large amplitude trough. Previous runs had shown a more favorable synoptic scale setup for tornadoes, but more recent runs have trended towards a less favorable large scale setup with a weak closed low anchoring over the SE US ahead of this trough. This far out I’m not going to ramble about details, but this would be an impediment to good moisture return ahead of this more significant trough. Previous runs also had a more favorable tilt to the trough as it ejected into the plains. Later runs not so much. I’m keeping an eye on it though and if it looks like there will be any potential I’ll continue to post on it.
I should stay on top of blogging a little better now. I used to post forecasts constantly during chase season at my old site, but it was really becoming a time hog so I quit for the last year or two. I think the better solution is just posting less frequently. It got to the point where it felt like a job and it made me not want to do it. I think if I just do it when I really feel like I have something worth saying about the forecast though it will return to being something I enjoy. I’m not going to set up comments because managing the spam is a pain in the butt, but if you do have something to say to me you can utilize the contact page email or form to get ahold of me. Anyhow, there’s something to pay attention to in the models again so I’ll be keeping an eye on it and if it is looking like we may actually get a decent severe/tornado setup I’ll get some more detailed posts with some graphics up soon.